Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 213.609038 255.825156 306.800829 373.708567 460.452512 570.871299 7.249766e+02
2025-09-14 162.706555 212.021984 278.670833 378.090657 527.710675 753.570351 1.139872e+03
2025-09-21 136.190623 188.292545 264.641837 390.055500 602.550244 973.185626 1.737430e+03
2025-09-28 115.591639 166.825314 246.524847 387.463211 649.974848 1167.101613 2.430313e+03
2025-10-05 107.212986 161.370740 250.770882 421.276180 772.559555 1565.721426 3.944156e+03
2025-10-12 99.472113 155.113767 251.745211 448.726185 893.782916 2040.023034 6.303102e+03
2025-10-19 92.137048 148.056211 249.499050 468.789154 1007.803243 2583.120262 9.928147e+03
2025-10-26 85.141397 140.350690 244.329757 481.000460 1108.931626 3178.843195 1.539929e+04
2025-11-02 78.347572 131.939997 236.121807 484.035666 1187.915390 3782.397857 2.327073e+04
2025-11-09 71.279308 122.033042 223.158600 472.413825 1220.047379 4248.132521 3.266466e+04
2025-11-16 65.178281 113.230159 211.099874 460.122556 1245.884399 4728.676156 4.597919e+04
2025-11-23 59.858449 105.346043 199.829473 447.247027 1265.269138 5216.691976 6.491817e+04
2025-11-30 58.745092 105.945955 207.714739 489.440549 1511.463781 7421.692103 1.695285e+05
2025-12-07 55.298561 101.324428 203.012135 495.141166 1624.722940 9074.838301 3.588035e+05
2025-12-14 52.840832 98.489361 202.050956 511.970431 1800.116431 11744.787474 1.068375e+06
2025-12-21 49.562549 93.505991 195.104418 508.287157 1881.762078 13879.116217 2.999456e+06
2025-12-28 49.020086 94.468466 203.117887 556.325227 2267.003431 21362.514963 9.783298e+07
2026-01-04 47.989646 94.197905 207.934926 595.618609 2653.837060 32132.508696 NaN
2026-01-11 46.559174 92.831036 209.613105 624.498385 3017.774005 46923.549249 NaN
2026-01-18 44.818213 90.536988 208.383360 642.140652 3334.336297 66066.412021 NaN
2026-01-25 42.788840 87.341592 204.136365 646.533234 3564.698088 87981.763973 NaN
2026-02-01 40.300284 82.799259 195.397468 629.730059 3609.757867 103726.533207 NaN
2026-02-08 37.994929 78.520259 186.919006 612.006806 3636.182751 121106.736198 NaN